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Prediction ParlaysTestnet

Stack your convictions into a single, fairly priced bet

Bundle two or three prediction market outcomes into one position, priced the way markets actually behave.

Your parlay3 legs
1Lakers win the NBA titleSports
2Artemis II returns safelySpace
3GTA VI ships this yearGaming
Joint positionCopula priced

One receipt, one payout, underwritten by the LP vault

The Idea

What is a parlay, really

A combined bet on two or more events: every leg has to hit, but the payout grows with each one you add.

The catch is that prediction markets are full of correlated outcomes, and pricing them naively quietly breaks the math for everyone involved.

Naive pricingMultiplies probabilities

Treats every leg as unrelated. Overpays winners and bleeds the vault.

Laytus copula engineModels the joint distribution

Reconstructs the real joint probability. Honest payouts, solvent LPs.

Visualizing Correlation

What the copula actually sees

Each dot is a historical outcome across two markets. Independent markets look diffuse; correlated markets collapse toward a diagonal. The copula turns that shape into a price.

Assumed independenceρ = 0.00

Diffuse cloud, no structure. Naive pricing lives here

Actual correlationρ = 0.72

Cloud collapses toward a trend. The copula reads the shape

How It Works

Four steps from conviction to settlement

1

Pick your events

Two or three outcomes, any category.

2

We price the combo

The correlation engine returns a fair joint probability and payout.

3

Lock in your position

Deposit USDC and receive a transferable position receipt.

4

Settle automatically

Every leg hits, you get paid. Any leg misses, the vault keeps the deposit.

Under The Hood

The mechanics, at a glance

Legs
Two or three per parlay
Pricing
Gaussian copula, correlation-aware
Fees
Dynamic vig, routed to LP vault
Settlement
Automatic on market resolution
Position receipt
Tradeable on-chain token
Underwriting
LP vault takes the other side
Why We Built This

Because multi-outcome markets should actually be tradeable

Parlays are the highest-margin product in sports betting and the one prediction markets have never shipped. If you can’t price correlated outcomes, you can’t underwrite them. Laytus finally can.